Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
