A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
